From Plant Press, Vol. 20, No. 2, April 2017.
By Laurence J. Dorr
If the poet T.S. Eliot wrote The Waste Land today he would have to modify the first verse. What are we to make of this unusual winter? Spring arrived in Washington three weeks earlier than expected, in February rather than March or April. We saw the warning signs of climate change long before this and certainly an article published over 15 years ago by our staff and collaborators (Abu-Asab et al., Biodiversity and Conservation 10: 597-612. 2001) presented the first hard evidence of earlier spring flowering times in the Washington area as a response to global warming. But the signal they detected was 4.6 not 21 days. Record high temperatures are wonderful for those of us who dislike cold and snow, but while 30º Fahrenheit above normal in the heart of winter seems kind, 30º above normal in summer will be very cruel.
Our data set is static now; 31 years of observation made its point. Its assembly was a nice example of community or citizen science; over 125 persons contributed first-flowering dates throughout the years. Nonetheless, it does not take a community to record phenological data. Subsequent to the publication of the Washington-area data, researchers plumbed the unpublished records of the “Hermit of Walden” who made observations of first flowering dates for over 500 species of wildflower in Concord, Massachusetts from 1851 to 1858 (Primack & Miller-Rushing, BioScience 62: 170-180. 2012). Their conclusions were more or less the same. They were able to establish that the plants Thoreau observed in Concord more than 150 years ago are now flowering, on average, ten days earlier than they were when Thoreau “went to the woods”.
The science of phenology may well “date” from the English naturalist Robert Marsham who published Indications of Spring (1789) based on notes that he started in 1736 and continued for more than 60 years. It was not only English gentlemen who recorded their observations of flowering times. Botanists became engaged early, too. I cannot claim to have done a thorough search but I do know that the French botanist Jean Emmanuel Gilibert, who holds the unfortunate distinction of having many of his botanical works officially suppressed by the International Code of Nomenclature for Algae, Fungi, and Plants (2012), recorded flowering dates when he was in Lithuania to teach natural history and medicine and he combined them with similar notes from Lyon, France compiled by Mme. Clémence Lortet (Le calendrier de flore, pour l’année 1778, autour de Grodno, et pour l’ année 1808, autour de Lyon, 1809). If Gilibert had not delayed publication he would have anticipated Marsham. In any case, a systematic search of the botanical literature likely would yield more records that could be analyzed, but I do not think it would change the story. Similarly, now that we are assembling large herbarium datasets I am certain that we can begin to abstract phenological data that will inform us about climate change in the near term and on very local scales.
Surprisingly (to me at least), a generation passes quickly. I have my own 25 years of phenological records for Washington. Nothing is written down but my casual observations represent my own private daybook, my mental notes on what flowers when and what to expect from my garden in each season. Growing up much further north (and not too terribly far from Walden Pond) it took me a long time to accept that my concept of when spring occurred had to change. Here lilacs flower “with the perfume strong I love” well before May (and only now do I understand why Walt Whitman spoke of lilacs blooming in mid-April) and roses do not wait until June. I do not remember when we planted our garden when I was younger or if there was a fixed signal other than perhaps a prediction about the last frost in the Old Farmer’s Almanac. Here I have always struggled with timing. Some years I get it right and others not. If I judge correctly I enjoy the sunflowers, zinnias, and cosmos at the end of the summer. If I get it wrong what have I lost? The price of a few packets of seed. I should be more concerned when data and reason tell me something is wrong about the way I perceive the world. Getting it wrong on a global scale is more costly than a few packets of seed. But what can I (or you) do? We can agitate and speak loudly with our research, or like Candide “il faut cultiver notre jardin”.